← Illusive RDO Online Regionals 26/04/26
Water AetherwingTier 2
at Illusive RDO Online Regionals 26/04/26
decks
4
(5.9% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
26
11-12-3
overall winrate
48.1%
ELO-adjusted winrate
49.4%
avg ELO -0.2 per match
expected value
48.7%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
49.8%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1416
· median 1442
· range 1246–1535
(4 pilots with an ELO rating)
1095
Q1 1321
Q3 1438
1624
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
25% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Slimes | 10.3% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.9% | +0.9 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 8.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 47.5% | -4.0 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 8.8% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 54.3% | +3.2 |
| Water Fractal | 4.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.5% | -8.7 |
| Wind Razorgale | 4.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.3% | +6.9 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 4.4% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.8% | +2.7 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.8% | -6.7 |
| Fire Oblation | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 2.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.0% | -9.6 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 2.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.5% | -10.4 |
| Water Allies | 2.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.8% | -8.3 |
| Water Exia | 2.9% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 49.6% | -0.4 |
| Water Genbu | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 2.9% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.3% | +1.0 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 1.5% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.0% | -3.2 |
| Fire Ravishing Mill | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ciel | 1.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 47.1% | -4.7 |
| Horse and Taxes | 1.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.2% | -6.0 |
| Slimes | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Exalted Mordred | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 1.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.7% | +5.9 |
| Water Tera Kongming | 1.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.9% | +6.2 |
| Wind Allies | 1.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.7% | +9.1 |
| Wind Arcane | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Silvie | 1.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.7% | +9.1 |
| Wind Umbra Guardian | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 4 from this event
The 4 public Water Aetherwing decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
